By Marty Shindler

I asked the title question in my column exactly one year ago.

Today, with advances in digital technology, projection quality, and broadband distribution infrastructure, it is no longer a question of if we will see widespread electronic cinema, but when and who will pay for it. E-cinema (or d-cinema, for digital, take your choice) is a reality, albeit on a relatively small scale today.

The "blasphemy" issue is no longer a problem. Even the most die-hard film fans now seem to recognize that the technical hurdles to matching film’s image quality will eventually be overcome. And according to reports in the trade press, the average movie customer is unable to differentiate between digital and traditional film projection.

The signs are clear:

• Last year, Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace played digitally on four screens in New Jersey and California, using two different projection systems.
• Disney, a leader in applying new technologies, has exhibited four of its recent releases digitally in a handful of US theaters (Tarzan, Bicentennial Man, Toy Story 2, and Mission to Mars, now in theaters).
• Texas Instruments recently announced that there are five digital systems using its Digital Light Processing (DLP) technology in Europe and one in Japan.
• When Imax Corporation purchased Digital Projection International for US$27.2 million last year, $17.2 million of the purchase price was for "goodwill." Imax’s willingness to pay a premium for this intangible asset is evidence of its belief in the potential of e-cinema.
• An independent Digital Cinema Lab has been established by the University of Southern California, the Motion Picture Association, the National Association of Theater Owners, and the International Theatre Equipment Association. The lab will serve as an independent test bed for the various technologies needed to bring e-cinema into general use.
• The 2000 Academy Awards^® broadcast used 29 e-cinema projectors, five from Barco and the rest from Digital Projection.

However, there are still financial obstacles in the way of e-cinema, and they may be tougher to crack than the technical problems. At issue is who will pay for the conversion of the 37,000 screens in North America and at least twice that number in the rest of the world. It has been suggested that the larger exhibition chains will resist converting existing auditoriums, but may add digital projection as they build new screens.

However few seem to be following that practice so far. According to news reports, many of the major chains are still struggling to cope with their overbuilding of screens in the past few years. As a result, expansion in the near future will probably be limited.

Obstacles remain to digital origination as well. Many industry observers regard George Lucas’ intent to use a digital camera to shoot the next Star Wars film as a sign of the imminent demise of film for image capture.

I’m not so sure. Look carefully at how much digital production Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace used. Few shots are large-scale live-action scenes. Most are bluescreen stage shots with digital enhancements, such as set extensions, virtual backgrounds, and digital compositing.

Star Wars Episode 2, which will use a 24fps digital camera that Sony and Panavision are jointly building for Lucas, will probably employ even more digital techniques. So do not expect this camera to be used in major live-action sequences that a traditional film camera could capture with greater quality.

Although the Lucas techniques may work well for films with large amounts of digitally created content, they do not yet spell the end of film as an origination medium for the vast majority of movies, mainstream or LF.

Finally, If you’re going to the National Association of Broadcasters convention in Las Vegas this month, be sure to scout all the digital projection systems that are sure to be on display.