Futuring CE – It’s all smart – Into the 20s

It’s 2020 and the beginning of a new year.  For some, it is the beginning of a new decade.  With that, we look ahead at some of the technologies that will impact business and those that will impact the consumer.

Not attending CES 2020 this week has not stopped us from thinking about what the show will be like.

Many years ago, in our work with noted futurist Alvin Toffler, he spoke about the virtual trade show that we would “attend” in the “future.”  We are there.

Here are our expectations for CES this year and 2020 and beyond as we look to the future.

 

Automotive – A must see, and generally the first area we visit, automotive has grown considerably in size and in smartness over the years.  Many of the technologies exhibited by the global auto manufacturers and their supply chains are maturing.  Autonomous cars, and increasingly trucks, are evolving rapidly.  Given a nationwide shortage of qualified drivers, autonomous trucks may soon be on the road in greater numbers than we now anticipate.

Closely related to automotive are smart cities and the related tech, including next gen scooters, electric bicycles and a reported new offering from Segway.  Smart tech enables creature comforts within vehicles. This is a large and growing market and not just for entertainment systems.  For example, Honda will be showing its new personal assistant, making us wonder how this will replace or interface with Google Assistant or Apple’s CarPlay.

Smart speakers – Amazon’s Alexa and the Google Assistant were everywhere at CES 2019.  Google deployed its team, clad in white logo’d jumpsuits, at a wide range of booths where their software tools were incorporated into numerous products.  Google even had a short theme park style ride touting the merits of their product.  Alexa (and presumably Google too) was recently named one of the best new products of the recent decade.  Owning several such devices ourselves that we use regularly, we would have to agree.

Samsung is expected to have a formal launch of its AI powered speaker, Neon, at CES, a product to “be an AI-powered digital human that will replicate the emotions and intelligence of us real humans.” Reportedly it is an update to Bixby, which I have on my phone, and which is less than spectacular.  Google voice recognition on the phone and its capabilities, is superior.  We are still curious about Samsung’s offering.

We expect these products to be even more prevalent in 2020 at the show and in our homes.

Satellite based internet – There have been several recent reports that Apple is working on enabling future iPhones to receive signals directly from/to satellites.  This is not surprising in that SpaceX has been launching satellites to provide internet around the world, not just in hard to reach locations.  Amazon, either directly or through Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, will be doing the same.

In addition to internet access, the satellites may also provide more robust and highly accurate GPS, a feature that is fundamental to smart phones.

While Apple is not exhibiting at CES, they will no doubt be there, with teams of their personnel deployed throughout the show floor.

With the increasing frequency of space launches, not just satellites, we expect to hear announcements of how satellites will take our communications to the next level.  The Artemis moon landing project is moving ahead rapidly.  That supply chain will be on display, if not this year, certainly next, as the tech filters down to the consumer.

Displays – The major manufacturers of displays (phones, TVs, tablets and other in product uses for the devices), Samsung, LG, TCL, HiSense, Huawei and others, introduce new and innovative product offerings each year.  We expect to see a sharp increase in the number of vendors presenting 8K and several forms of OLED screens.  And when you think displays/TVs could not get any thinner or smarter, they do, as seen in Samsung’s CES press releases.

Foldable displays have been exhibited for a few years with Samsung having had its ups and downs with its phone/tablet.  Lenovo is introducing its foldable laptop at CES 2020.  Sooner or later, foldables, theirs and others, will make their way into the mainstream.  The exact form and the level of acceptance by the consumer is still to be determined.

5G – 5G is here.  Or is it?  With installations in major cities from the largest carriers, Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile, 2020 could be the year that prompts the consumer to purchase that new 5G enabled phone.  The challenge is having sufficient coverage and for users to make that increasingly expensive purchase to a new device, as the consumer has not been upgrading as quickly as in the early days of the smartphone.

In recent years, the main difference between the current year’s phone and last year’s is the sophistication of the camera or cameras.  That has not been the driver for sales.  Will the carriers and manufacturers team up to make us all an offer we cannot refuse?  Will Apple and others lower their prices?  All TBD.

Artificial intelligence – AI will be everywhere.

Increasingly, AI will have more substance in terms of how it is used and is how it is beneficial to the consumer.  John Deere, for example, incorporates AI into its products, equipment tied to “those who cultivate, harvest, transform, enrich and build upon the land to meet the world’s dramatically increasing need for food, fuel, shelter and infrastructure.”

Robotics have had an increasing presence at CES and 2020.  This year, Samsung is introducing Ballie, “a personalized robot as an all around personal life companion.”

We also expect more surveillance tech, sophisticated facial recognition and enhanced voice recognition.  Voice recognition is already well along its maturation curve, and will continue to improve as it becomes more fully trained.

Healthcare – Incorporating AI technology into healthcare products has enabled significant advances in healthcare products.  Google has been testing its AI based breast cancer screening tool in the US and UK.  MIT Technology Review reports that it “has promising implications for the eventual use of such systems in the real world.”

Apps that can perform EKGs, monitor glucose levels, track eye movement and in a multitude of sports and exercise wearables/devices is a significant part of the consumer electronic experience and fundamental to healthcare.

Internet of Things – IoT has matured greatly in the past few years but still has a very long way to go.  As households install more IoT devices, e.g. thermostats, smart lights, door locks, remote access cameras and security systems and, speakers to act as hubs, more product offerings will be brought to market.  IoT, of course, is a fundamental part of the smart city and autonomous driving and will be “driven” by 5G as that tech rolls out.

Wearables leader Fitbit will become a part of Alphabet/Google in 2020 and as a result will likely increase its product offerings.

 

While many of the products and services that we are looking ahead to are maturing, there are still many that are early in their life cycle, to our collective benefit.  Some will become successful products and services, and some will fall by the wayside as often depicted in the Gartner Hype Cycle – rising to the peak of inflated expectations before dropping precipitously in the trough of disillusionment.

 

© 2020 The Shindler Perspective, Inc.